Julia Gillard Fan Club? I ain’t joining!

 

(Above: Young people did way more for climate action than Julia Gillard)

Written by: Louisa L. on 15 October 2022

Tony Abbott loved every minute of Julia Gillard’s misogyny speech, now a decade old. He smiled, smirked, laughed like a clown. 

I enjoyed her speech because from the mid-1970s I heard of sexist scumbag Tony Abbott terrorising Sydney Uni. 

Kim Beazley, an all-the-way-with-the-USA minister under Hawke and Keating, called him ‘the Bomb Thrower’, because Tony chucked a smoke bomb into an indoor NSW Uni event for visiting National Liberation Front of Vietnam speakers. UNSW was way more working class than Sydney. Tony was smashed to the floor. Roars of approval! He copped more outside, and never came back. 

So, if I despise Abbott why aren’t I Julia’s fan?

Comedian Groucho Marx from pre-TV days quipped that he wouldn’t join any club that would have him as a member. My refusal is something else altogether.

Work Choices and Climate Change

Kevin “Everyone Except Me Is Stupid” Rudd came into the prime ministership on two floods of struggle in 2007. The biggest was against Howard’s Work-Choices-for-Capitalists. Union “leaders” promptly shut the floodgates against worker organisation. Kevin with Julia’s “loyal support” starved funds to the Australian Building and Construction Commission, but failed to legislate it out of existence. (1)

Then they set up Work Choices Lite, Unfair Work Australia, with its raft of measures to undermine the ability of workers to organise.

The second people’s flood demanded climate change action. 

Kev immediately began hammering out a scaffold to cut emissions. UPROAR! Big Coal foamed at the mouth, stamped round yelling. Murdoch too. 

Picture Kev up a ladder, hammering away. Like frightened poodles, Julia plus Bill Shorten started digging a hole under that ladder. Down tumbles gutless Kev – AND the emissions’ scheme scaffolding. 

It told the people the ALP wasn’t fair dinkum. It sowed a seed in people’s minds, watered and fed and propagated and spread by the carbon corporations, that climate change wasn’t fair dinkum either. In 2007, people understood it as an existential threat. After Kev’s Julia-enforced about-face, many wondered whether it was really so dangerous. Otherwise, why did they back down? 

Her later emissions trading scheme was much weaker.

Cold, cold heart

Gillard turns my stomach. It’s not about her as an individual. It’s a class thing. 

As Kev’s education minister she was on the opposite side to kids, teachers, parents and community. 

Instead of increasing funding and reversing TAFE’s scandalously high casualisation, she drafted legislation making Federal funding reliant on states introducing a “competitive” market for vocational education. This already operated in Victoria. The privatised virus of outrageous rip-offs and sky-rocketing profits plaguing Victoria spread nationwide, despite huge efforts from unions. Instead of education for life and work, lists of repetitive skills were funded and ticked off… or not. 

Not content she met Rupert Murdoch in New York.  

In 2008 Rupert slagged off public schools on his ABC Boyer Lecture. Next, he lectured the G8 on ‘Education the Last Frontier’ (for mega profits). Rupert sent Julia to Joel Klein, a former corporate lawyer turned “educational genius”, then running NY schools. (2) 

Giant edu-corporations wanted to reduce teaching to narrow skills marketed online. For that they needed tests to show where schools, teachers and above all kids were “failing”.

Julia brought Klein to lecture here. In 2010 she launched NAPLAN.  

In the first ever Australia-wide teacher industrial action, the AEU banned the tests. It was rock solid, especially in NSW. Finally she used Unfair Work provisions to threaten teachers in Victoria, NT and ACT with $4000-$6000 fines, ending the ban. https://www.smh.com.au/education/how-gillard-gave-truculent-teachers-a-caning-20100507-ujoo.html

NAPLAN remains the cold corporate heart in Australian schools. After years of rear-guard actions, but with no strikes for a decade until last year, NAPLAN’s results are entrenched. Informal league tables falsely comparing schools gutted comprehensive public high schools, curriculum continues to narrow and teaching to the test is all some teachers know. 

“As good as a man”

Julia proved a woman can do just as good a job for capitalism as a man.

Of course, Ms Gillard’s arch enemy Tony, plus Malcolm, Scummo and all their state mates, built on it. 

When spontaneous outrage exploded at the vicious patriarchal treatment of Brittany Higgins and others in Parliament House, Julia’s misogyny speech was remembered and welcomed. 

That movement raised wider questions about how women are treated – the homelessness; the working poor; the nurses, teachers, child care, aged care and gig economy workers with crushing workloads and shitty pay; the ongoing colonial state violence facing First Peoples’ women.  

Julia’s speech might be of some use in raising spirits. But fixing this mess a class thing, a women’s liberation thing not an individual one. In that, Julia is no use at all. 

Go for the shorter stuff, says anonymous 1980s writer

 

(Above: Some things never change under capitalism. We have to organise. GBAR workers' winning picket in The Rocks, Sydney in 2019)

Written by: Louisa L. on 13 October 2022

This morning an old article emerged from my desk, months after escaping a cupboard. Written during Hawke and Keating’s Capitalist Golden Age of neoliberalism, before Keating announced the ‘recession we had to have’ that got Howard installed, this gem was marked ‘Contributed’.

It began, ‘A couple of mates and myself have been discussing what we’d like to see in Vanguard.’ It briefly praised the paper, then raised concerns.

‘Our discussion arose because we were feeling particularly frustrated at the loss of another working condition. 

‘What it was and what industry we work in aren’t important, but we only found out some time later that this had been stitched up between the union and the management in our factory. It stank. Many of us were very angry. But we know if we stick our heads up, they’ll get chopped off, not by the bosses but by our own union leaders doing the dirty work for the bosses.’ 

Sound familiar?

If we’re in the dunny “too long” we cop a blast

‘We didn’t have much idea what “restructuring” meant. Nor did we have clue about “multi-skilling”. Our shop steward was taken off for a talk and to get the good oil. He came back and said it sounded okay, but there was so much to read and absorb he wasn’t too sure what the whole the whole thing was about.

‘Now we’ve found out it means some of our fellow workers have been made redundant, and they were the ones who were militant and union supporters. The sucks are getting all the good jobs. The rest of us are having to work like demons now, and if we’re in the dunny “too long” we cop a blast.

‘It makes us sick that we are losing practically everything we’d won in the good times, and there’s no consultation with us who have to flog ourselves to death. Nowadays there are very few stop-work meetings and when we do have them, it’s to be given orders, not to find out what we, the union members, want or think. 

‘We reckon this must be happening across the board and that there must be a lot of anger and unrest around the traps. What we’d like to suggest is that Vanguard get a series of articles going each week about how other workers are making out, the problems they face, whether unions are doing a good job or not, and perhaps get some stories from veterans who’ve been involved in battles over the years and can share their experience.

‘We don’t think each item needs to be too long – three or four paragraphs would do. As for the length of articles generally, we’d like to see them shorter. Your heart drops when you look at a full page of print, and it’s hard going if you’re tired after work. It’s tempting just to go for the shorter stuff and give the longer bits the go-by. Other than that – keep up the good work.’

Have a go mate

The problems are way worse now, but workers still celebrate when they break out collectively.

Not everyone is confident or has energy in this world of unrelenting overwork to write articles, but what about a few paragraphs or some dot points?  What have you learned by listening to workmates, neighbours, family and other friends about what’s happening in the world? We don’t want fancy words, just write like you speak. Simple and straightforward is great, though there are times for longer articles, and deep analysis that draws multiple truths together.

Quantity becomes quality. A whole lot of bullshit becomes a mountain of lies ready for demolishing. A lot of short truthful pieces that matter to people become a weapon in their hands.

So, come on you lot, why not have a go? As some Russian bloke said, only those who do nothing make no mistakes.

US “Pacific Partnership Strategy” hits back at China

(Above: US Pacific Fleet.    Photo credit: Annie C Newman on Flickr)

 Written by: (Contributed) on 11 October 2022

Moves by the US to establish a regional Pacific Partnership Strategy (PPS), has little to do with the economic development and defence and security interests of the twelve Pacific countries involved; it is nothing more than an attempt by the US to reassert its traditional hegemonic position from the challenge presented by China. Drawing heavily upon Australia as a strategic hub for 'US interests' the foreign policy initiative has followed neo-colonial principles as a means of protecting the US economy from competition overseas.

Moves by the Solomon Islands to reject the PPS are evidence of the growing anti-imperialist struggle taking place in the region.

During late September the Biden administration in Washington hosted a two-day US-Pacific Island Nations Summit for twelve Pacific countries: Fiji, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, PNG., Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Cook Islands, French Polynesia and New Caledonia. Australia, as the major hub for regional 'US interests', was represented by Arthur Sinodinos, Canberra's ambassador in Washington.

The US used the summit to announce it was planning a US$810 million aid package for economic and security considerations, designed to counter China's growing regional influence. (1) In recent years many of the Pacific countries linked to the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) have strengthened their diplomatic links with China. It has been viewed by Washington and the Pentagon with extreme disquiet and assessed as a serious challenge to US traditional regional hegemonic positions.

The traditional US position in the region, historically, has been based upon neo-colonial economic relations, foisted upon the newly independent countries decades ago through banking and financial institutions designed to siphon wealth, raw materials and resources from subject economies. Sustainable economic development in the region was never a serious consideration for US imperialism: the prolonging of poverty was a means by which the US retained its control of so-called independent countries. The recent changing regional balance of forces, however, has brought these matters to a head.

The US, for example, has been forced to apologise for having not 'paid enough attention to the region, creating opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence'. (2) It is also important to note the summit 'vision statement' was couched in sophisticated new-age terminology including: human-centred development, tackling climate change, the geo-politics and security of the Pacific region, commerce and industry and trade ties. In reality, however, the US was merely seek to prolong enforced compliance of the region in line with its usual regional foreign policy positions. It seeks no change.

In recent years there has been a concerted US-led diplomatic push to counter what are regarded as China's increasing regional influences. It has been marked by hostile diplomacy, diplomatic stand-offs and a constant series of war-games in preparation for real-war scenarios. Areas of the wider region including the South China Seas, the Korean peninsula, Taiwan Straits and the West and South Pacific, remain under US-led Cold War surveillance.

It has been noted from informed sources that 'the US was almost over-reacting in terms of timing and what they were seeking to achieve … there's almost a frantic nature to it'. (3) The diplomatic behaviour, however, would appear to closely follow military and intelligence assessments provided by US-led officials. Decisions taken a decade ago to transform the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) and employ as many as 1,600 'collectors' globally to provide increased provision of assessments including those about the 'military modernisation under way in China' has assisted those in hawkish positions to unleash the present Cold War sweeping the Indo-Pacific. (4) At the inception of the program it was noted problems had already arisen with the US providing cover for the new operatives, and that US embassies usually hosted spies as diplomatic officials. (5)

Studies of those US-led intelligence assessments which have entered the public domain, also remain an interesting read. One, in particular, revealed the line of US-led thinking pursued by their intelligence services. The Pacific countries all possess exclusive economic zones (EEZs), which are often disproportionate to their actual land-mass size. Kiribati, for example, has a land-mass of 811 square kms, although its EEZ is 3,437,132 square kms. (6)
Following the diplomatic switch by the Solomon Islands and Kiribati from Taiwan to China, in September 2019, China gained diplomatic access to about eighty per cent of the regions EEZs. (7)

The fact the EEZs remain under different Pacific Islands sovereignty was not, however, regarded by the Pentagon as an important consideration. They would appear to have little respect for Pacific Islanders and the sovereignty of their EEZs. Their assumption that China would use its diplomatic personnel to take advantage of the EEZs is, therefore, not particularly sensible. The fact the intelligence assessments were subsequently used by the Pentagon, nevertheless, to raise fears China would use its enhanced diplomatic position to spy on sensitive US military installations situated along the equator can only be regarded as highly speculative. (8) 

One matter arising with the Pacific EEZs, however, is ample quantities of rare-earth minerals and other forms of metalloids located inside the off-shore areas. Recent technological advances in deep-sea mining and mineral exploration techniques have raised the distinct possibility of China developing joint-projects with various Pacific countries to exploit their natural resources to benefit national economies and tie  them more closely to what China calls its “overseas development interests”. (9) Polymetallic nodules have already been found in the EEZ off the Cook Islands and Kiribati, cobalt deposits exist in the waters of Kiribati, Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and French Polynesia. Vast gold, hydro-carbons and nickel ore deposits exist in PNG. (10)  

While the Pacific Island countries have a vested interest in diversifying their economies and controlling their own natural resources, the usual US-led regional position has been for mining companies to use Australia as a regional hub and then buy mining rights outright at cut-rate levels. The subsequent dividends, invariably, keep shareholders happy, although they have provided little benefit for the islanders since independence.  

US-led military planning is totally preoccupied with Island Chain Theory; it is important, therefore, to study the diplomatic personnel involved and their varying levels of expertise in regional affairs for pursuing 'US interests'.  

At the recent PPS summit in Washington, for example, the Biden administration picked the present US consul-general in Melbourne, Frankie Reed, to become the newly established US envoy for the whole Pacific region. He was formerly the ambassador to Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru and Tonga. (11) The announcement that the US was opening an Aid Mission in Suva next year together with an embassy in Honiara have to be seen in such  a light; the US has already planned to increase its regional diplomatic presence from six to nine embassies. (12)

The reaction of many Pacific Islanders to these US-led diplomatic forays and massive flows of finance capital has been mixed and varied. Those attending the two-day summit in Washington, for example, were issued with a US-drafted eleven-point declaration which they were expected to sign. The paternalistic manner in which the US-led diplomacy was conducted followed a common pattern, which has often proved counter-productive. It was officially reported, for example, that 'a large number of Pacific Island leaders have strongly objected to a section of the draft mentioning requirement that Pacific Island states consult with one another closely on security decisions with regional impacts'. (13) Their own 'national interests' were not even considered.

The Solomon Islands, furthermore, 'sought more time and parliamentary approval before the signing of the US proposals for the island nations'. (14) Under the circumstances the decision was extremely sensible, taking the ethnic-based political instability affecting the country and the need for those in power to retain protocol and official parliamentary procedures to avoid challenging allegations being made by influential opposition figures.

It is, therefore, interesting to note how Canberra viewed the summit and subsequent developments: coverage from Canberra once again demonised the Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands, Manasseh Sogavare as a regional 'bogeyman' more inclined to side with China than the US. (15) It has provided sufficient evidence, once again, of the escalation of US-led Cold War positions taken against the Solomon Islands.

These are difficult times and the continual role of the US and its militarisation programs present a serious challenge for all those living in the Indo-Pacific region:

                                             We need an independent foreign policy!

 

1.     US pact to put check on China in Pacific, Australian, 30 September 2022.  
2.     Ibid.
3.     Ibid., quoting Maritime security expert, Peter Oleson, retired US official.
4.     Pentagon plays spy game, The Guardian Weekly (U.K.), 7 December 2012.
5.     Ibid.
6.     China now controls 80% of the Pacific EEZ., Rieko Hayakawa and Jennifer L. Anson, (US v. China., Japan Forward: Politics and Security), 14 February 2020.
7.     Ibid.
8.     Ibid.
9.     See: China's strategic objectives and ambitions in the South-West Pacific, Strategic Analysis Paper, Future Directions International, 31 October 2019, page 6.
10.   Ibid.
11.   US pact, Australian, op.cit., 30 September 2022.
12.   Ibid.
13.   Solomon Islands deals a blow to US by refusing to sign Pacific declaration, Sputnik News, 20220928, 30 September 2022.
14.   Ibid.
15.   Editorial, Solomons isolated in the Pacific, Australian, 30 September 2022; and, China is winning the battle for influence in the Pacific, The Weekend Australian, 1-2 October 2022, in an in-depth article which begins with 'Solomon Islands is moving closer to China and further away from Australia and the West'.

ICOR Statement on Iran: This cry is not a lament - it is the cry of a courageous popular uprising

 Written by: ICOR on 9 October 2022

A young Kurdish woman, Jina Mahsa Amini (age 22), died in police custody in Tehran at the hands of Iran's morality police on 16 September. The pretext for her arrest was the alleged violation of the law to wear the Hijab. She was from Saghez, the Kurdish part of Iran. 

Since then, the mass protests in Iran do not stop; day and night the streets are dominated by the protesters, in the Kurdish province, but also in all big and small cities of Iran. Gina Amini's death has again ignited the fire of a revolutionary ferment throughout the country, which had been glowing among the masses for a long time and expressed itself above all in an unprecedented accumulation of workers' struggles. 

At first glance, the protests seem like a spontaneous uprising of anger. But it is much more and has a long history. Already last year, inflation of 55 up to 130 percent was becoming unbearable for people, and workers with experience of struggle were organizing in the factories. From March 2021 till March 2022, there were 4000 workers' struggles, from industrial sectors such as oil, gas, petrochemical, in steel plants, from sugar cane workers at Haft Tapeh to truck drivers, nurses and teachers. Trade union demands were raised in the protests, as well as demands directed against the privatization of factories, educational institutions and basic urban services. 

 

From these struggles the force developed that gives today's mass uprisings their nationwide breadth, their consistency, and directs their resistance against the regime.

 

"The people have simply had enough! The many workers' strikes; the women are in the streets; the teachers have been fighting for months, the pensioners. Everyone is fighting against the unbearable life full of poverty, inflation, hunger and oppression. The protests bear clear signs that the Kurds and all other peoples in Iran stand together in great solidarity." says Iranian Zaman Masudi, activist of the international militant women's movement. 

 

People are losing their fear. Despite brutal repression and violence with thousands of arrests and 133 deaths so far, women and men, workers, young people, students are standing up against the hated theocratic, fascist regime. Women shed their hijabs, police stations, religious centers and public offices go up in flames. The cry "Woman, Life, Liberty" rings out. And for the first time in 40 years, the slogan "Long live socialism, long live socialism" can be heard. 

 

As early as mid-July 2022, Nosrat T., CP Iran, said in an ICOR webinar, "I would like to say that society is moving at high speed toward revolutionary conditions." This is now proving true as economic and political demands, struggles interpenetrate and insurrectionary goals revolutionize. Organizers of the mass uprising in Marivan (near the Iraqi border) said in a call, a day after Gina's murder, "The reason for the degradation of women is capitalist culture, laws, and reactionary and patriarchal traditions." And several trade unions called for a strike under political slogans; the Coordinating Council of Oil Contract Workers wrote: "The increasing intensification of the cycle of oppression and brutality in the life of the government has put society in a state of rebellion today, highlighting the need for unity among permanent oil workers and short-time workers, and for practical solidarity to end this hellish situation." 

 

Organizations such as the Organization of Fadaiyan (Minority)/Eastern Kurdistan are calling for a general political strike and a nationwide uprising. 

 

Courage and will for societal change of the workers and popular masses are the potential for a victorious struggle. In order that their way does not suffocate in resignation or blood, a nationwide united leadership and a revolutionary party are necessary, which is respected among the masses and gives them orientation and organization. Above all, no struggle in any country today must remain alone and isolated. Therefore, the ICOR declares itself in solidarity with these struggles all over the world and sets itself the task to organize consciousness and support in worldwide solidarity activities. Imperialists and fascists are connected worldwide and the counterrevolution acts in a cross-border way. Therefore, national party building and the strengthening of international forms of organization such as ICOR or the anti-imperialist and antifascist united front must be resolutely pursued.

 

Long live the struggle of the Iranian masses for freedom and democracy!

Let's organize solidarity! Let's break Internet blocking and censorship!

Down with the theocratic, patriarchal and fascist regime!

Long live freedom - long live socialism! 

Forward with the ICOR!

Strengthen worldwide the antifascist, anti-imperialist united front!

 

Signatories (as of 07 October 2022, further signatories possible):

1. PCPCI   Parti Communiste Proletarien de Côte d'Ivoire (Proletarian Communist Party of Ivory Coast)

2. UPC-Manidem   Union des Populations du Cameroun - Manifeste National pour l’Instauration de la Démocratie (Union of Populations of Cameroon - National Manifesto for the Establishment of Democracy)

3. CPK   Communist Party of Kenya

4. MMLPL   Moroccan Marxist-Leninist Proletarian Line

5. CPSA (ML)   Communist Party of South Africa (Marxist-Leninist)

6. PCT   Parti Comuniste du Togo (Communist Party of Togo)

7. PPDS   Parti Patriotique Démocratique Socialiste (Patriotic Democratic Socialist Party), Tunisia

8. MLOA   Marxist-Leninist Organization of Afghanistan

9. CPB   Communist Party of Bangladesh

10. SPB   Socialist Party of Bangladesh

11. CPI (ML) Red Star   Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Red Star

12. NCP (Mashal)   Nepal Communist Party (Mashal)

13. NDMLP   New-Democratic Marxist-Leninist Party, Sri Lanka

14. CPA/ML   Communist Party of Australia (Marxist-Leninist)

15. БКП   Българска Комунистическа Партия (Bulgarian Communist Party)

16. PR-ByH   Partija Rada - ByH (Party of Labor - Bosnia and Herzegovina)

17. MLPD   Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands (Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany)

18. UC   Unité Communiste (Communist United ), France

19. UPML   Union Prolétarienne Marxiste-Léniniste (Marxist-Leninist Proletarian Union), France

20. BP (NK-T)   Bolşevik Parti (Kuzey Kürdistan-Türkiye) (Bolshevik Party (North Kurdistan-Turkey))

21. KOL   Kommunistische Organisation Luxemburg (Communist Organization of Luxemburg)

22. RM   Rode Morgen (Red Dawn), Netherlands

23. UMLP   União Marxista-Leninista Portuguesa (Portuguese Marxist-Leninist Union)

24. RMP   Российская маоистская партия (Rossijskaya maoistskaya partiya) (Russian Maoist Party)

25. MLGS   Marxistisch-Leninistische Gruppe Schweiz (Marxist-Leninist Group of Switzerland)

26. TKP-ML   Türkiye Komünist Partisi – Marksist-Leninist (Communist Party of Turkey – Marxist-Leninist)

27. MLKP   Marksist Leninist Komünist Parti Türkiye / Kürdistan (Marxist Leninist Communist Party Turkey / Kurdistan)

28. KSRD   Koordinazionnyj Sowjet Rabotschewo Dvizhenija (Coordination Council of the Workers Class Movement), Ukraine

29. PCC-M   Partido Comunista de Colombia – Maoista (Communist Party of Colombia - Maoist)

30. PCP (independiente)   Partido Comunista Paraguayo (independiente) (Paraguayan  Communist Party (independent))

Threat of Economic Slowdown: Workers Need to Organise

 

(Photo credit: Big Stock)

Written by: (Contributed) on 3 October 2022

Statistics from major international financial institutions have revealed a general slowing of the global economy with problems predicted for 2023. The economic downturn, however, will not be uniform, with clear disparities between regions and countries. Australia will also face a particularly troubled time ahead following an already decade-long history of declining living standards together with being a major player with US-led regional foreign policy and the economic responsibilities of being a 'hub' for 'US interests' .

Important lessons from previous times, however, still carry an important theme to present times!

Recent information from international financial institutions has revealed a major global economic down-turn from 5.8 per cent in 2021 to an estimated 3.0 per cent this year, followed by a further decline to an estimated 1.9 per cent or even lower in 2023. (1) Studies of the problem have revealed widespread discrepancies between regions and countries. The region covering South-east, East, South and Central Asia, for example, is forecast to grow by 5.3 per cent this year and much the same in 2023. (2) The major advanced, industrial economies, by contrast, may only grow by only 1.0 per cent in 2023. (3)  

The Euro-zone has been particularly hard-hit with the effects of the war in the Ukraine; their economic growth rates for 2022 are projected at about 3.2 per cent, falling to 0.3 per cent next year. The German economy was projected to grow at about 1.7 per cent in 2023, but is now expected to contract with a shrinkage of 2.4 per cent to minus 0.7 per cent. (4)

Australia had a forecast 2.5 per cent GDP growth rate for this year, with an estimated 2.0 per cent next year. (5) Elsewhere, however, it has already been forecast that the Australian economy is now expected to slow to a growth rate of about 1.0 per cent with the US trailing behind at about 0.5 per cent. (6) It is important to note that Australia has become particularly susceptible to global economic trends: decades of de-regulation, privatisation and liberalisation of a relatively small economy composed of about a 13 million-strong workforce has exposed the country to strong competition from larger, neighbouring countries, with relatively low wages.   

Domestically, Australian workers in the manufacturing and other sectors have seen their wages remain flat for a decade or more, while corporate profits have doubled. (7) The use of casual workers has been used by employers to systematically weaken workplace trade union organisation. The Covid-19 pandemic has also exacerbated economic considerations: a recent study of the Australian workforce, for example, found seven per cent were now holding more than one job to make ends meet, amounting to 900,000 workers; before the pandemic it was only slightly above five per cent. (8)

Australia's economy is also diverse, with China remaining the strongest trading partner. (9)
Reliance, by Australia, on the so-called 'alliance' with the US has also, therefore, created problems with the present Cold War: US-led war-mongering and hostile diplomacy toward China has drawn Australia into a situation whereby trade sanctions have already hit the economy.

While economists with international financial institutions have provided differing projections and assessments for the global economy in 2023, a recent statement from the World Bank should be regarded as central. The bank predicts three likely scenarios:

a.   economic growth will average at about 1.5 per cent;

b.   a sharp downturn will take place and economic growth will fall to 0.8 per cent;

c.   a global recession will occur where growth shrinks to about 0.4 per cent. (10)

Coverage of the problem and the wider implications has tended to be extremely diplomatic, with careful wording to avoid the risk of a panic stations mentality: a recent OECD report, ‘Paying the Price of War', for example, used the G20 countries as a sample and noted economic forecasts were reduced with only three countries seemingly not affected. One of the three countries was the UK, where economic growth rates are already zero and unlikely to improve in the foreseeable future. (11)

The general, historical rule, has shown that economic decline creates the conditions where social and political tensions rise, within countries, and between them.  

In Australia, workers faced with increased costs of living due to inflation are increasingly faced with employers who plead poverty while keeping their shareholders very happy with increased dividends. The superannuation funds of workers are also likely to take a big hit with economic downturn. In the neighbouring region protests from lower socio-economic groups have already shaken governments: in Indonesia, where the economy is booming, mass protests about rising fuel costs for millions of people in lower socio-economic brackets have already raised the political stakes in forthcoming elections.

Regional US-led diplomacy will also continue to attract some supporters while alienating other countries which will seek to strengthen trade links with China on the basis of conducting their own national interest. The problem is likely to lead to hostilities within influential regional trade bodies. It will also increase the likelihood of real-war scenarios taking place in the region, with Australia as a major hub for 'US interests' and large-scale troop rotations through the northern part of the country in preparation for rapid deployment.

The economic downturn presents the working class with an important challenge. Behind the scenes, however, it is important to remember that for the international working class there are few new lessons to be learned in the history of class struggle, calls from some quarters for 'modernisation' remain irrelevant: in the words of Joe Hill (1879-1915) who wrote the song, 'There is power in the Union', one of his last wishes was, 'don't mourn, organise!'.

The key to the successful challenge of the working class to the forces and tyranny of capital is organisation; it remains a central theme of working class struggle to the present day, without it workers are left powerless with their employers and the wider business classes.

An independent foreign policy, ridding Australia of US-led diplomatic influences and all that accompanies it, including the huge financial outlay, is also a demand!

1.     World GDP., Macrotrends; and, Global GDP., Euromonitor International; and, Recession risk as region growth outpaces China, Australian, 22 September 2022.
2.     Australian, ibid., 22 September 2022.
3.     Ibid.
4.     Dark days downgrade on growth as OECD warns of recession, Australian, 27 September 2022.
5.     Australia's economic growth forecast, 9 News, 27 September 2022.
6.     Risk of downturn rises as financial markets price in steeper rate hikes, The Weekend Australian, 24-25 September 2022.
7.     How to talk about wages and the cost of living, AMWU., September 2022.
8.     Record numbers work two jobs, Australian, 15 September 2022.
9.     See: Composition of the Australian economy, Snapshot, RBA., 8 September 2022.
10.   Slowdown suggests there's worse to come, Australian, 26 September 2022.
11.   Quoted: World economy to slow, 'paying the price of war', Australian, 27 September 2022.

Russia’s Ukraine War Enters Dangerous New Phase

 

Written by: Nick G. on 3 October 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has entered a dangerous new phase.

Putin’s decision to formally incorporate parts of eastern Ukraine into the Russian Federation following the holding of referenda under condition of military occupation has ratcheted up tensions and hastened the counter-formality of Ukraine’s application to join NATO.

Both sides appear to have ruled out continuing with talks aimed at resolving the crisis.

If Ukraine joins NATO, then there is every possibility that NATO will not only continue to arm Ukraine, but according to its Charter, may well decide to send in NATO troops.

Meanwhile, Putin has renewed threats to use nuclear weapons.

Putin’s nuclear threat is being encouraged by prominent right-wing forces in and around Russia.

On September 29, Putin met with the heads of eight former Soviet republics, members of the so-called Commonwealth of Independent States. He stated that his aim was the creation of a New World Order. His hand-picked puppet at the head of the Chechen Republic (not part of the CIS), Ramzan Kadyrov, whom he made a lieutenant-general of the Russian Armed Forces on March 28, 2022, said just days ago: "We must carry out NWO in the full sense of the word, and not flirt. Use every opportunity and every weapon to defend OUR territory. Donetsk is still being shelled. Residents of the joined 4 territories want to be protected."

A comrade from the Russian Maoist Party warned on August 8 that “the internal propagandists of the Russian Federation are extolling the idea of a complete obliteration of western countries with atomic weapons in all possible forms. Russian propaganda in Russia is actively promoting the idea of an atomic war of aggression. Russia is calling for us to be proud of every new military development, actively promoting new missiles on television, while boasting about how many are enough to destroy a certain country. Or boasting about how many seconds it takes for a new missile to reach important cities in western countries.”

This warning cannot be easily dismissed.

Once upon a time, the two superpowers believed that the more nuclear weapons they each possessed the better: matching each other’s nuclear weapons stockpiles would ensure that nuclear weapons would never be used. This became the theory of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), acceptance of which encouraged Reagan and Gorbachev to speak of détente and nuclear disarmament.

In fact, the nuclear powers remain armed to the teeth, and Putin has put the final nails in the coffin of the theory of MAD. 

There is the real danger that Putin will use nuclear weapons to pre-empt the entry of NATO troops to Ukraine, or respond to their entry with nuclear weapons to stave off defeat and avoid being driven out of that part of Ukraine he has incorporated into Russia.

All these dangers stem from imperialism. Russia, the aggressor, is imperialist. The United States, which undoubtedly provoked Russia’s aggression by expanding NATO eastwards in defiance of an undertaking given by Reagan to Gorbachev, is imperialist and the main source of war dangers globally.

At the beginning of this conflict, we raised the slogan “Russia out! US and NATO stay out!”

To those slogans we now need to add: “No nuclear weapons in the Ukrainian conflict!” 

Information on the current state of events in Russia

 Written by: Russian Maoist Party on 3 October 2022

Russia started its imperialist aggression against Ukraine hoping for a short victorious war but failed. Before the mobilisation Russia has gone through several defeats on the frontline. Russian imperialism instead of initial plans of assimilating Ukrainians and annexing the whole Ukraine, attempts now to save at least some positions. For the purpose of this, the 'referendums' on the occupied territories were held and then those territories were annexed.

Peculiarities of the Russian military legislation should also be taken into consideration: according to the Russian law, soldiers conscripted for military service cannot fight abroad. The law says that Russia can send on wars only contractees (those who serve on the contract basis). In case occupied territories are declared Russian and Ukraine continues counter-offensive attacks, Russia may assess it as aggression against its own territories and send conscriptees to the frontline. This scenario would give Russia a free hand in passing laws allowing the use of mass destruction weapons.

The Russian Maoist Party opposes referendums on the occupied territories of Ukraine because one principle will be followed there: “It is more important WHO will count votes rather than HOW it is voted”. Referendum results are already known, authorities of the occupied territories make their political statements and plans, saying they are already a part of the Russian Federation with overwhelming results – 80-90% FOR. Knocking each door for recording a vote did happen during the referendum and accompanying Russian armed forces obviously created additional pressure. We consider these referendums a flagrant violation of nations’ right to self-determination as, firstly, these are territories where the majority of the population is Ukrainians and, secondly, it is an outrageous abuse of democracy.

On the 21st of September the Russian government announced a “partial military mobilisation”. Citizens mobilised along with it are equated to the contractees and will be sent to Ukraine. It soon became painfully clear that mobilisation is not 'partial', but total, or will be total in the coming months. The mobilisation has divided the Russian society into two groups: the first ones wholly disapprove of the news (and try to escape abroad, protest on actions and no longer support the regime), the others think mobilisation will not concern them and their communication circle (they believe only veterans with combat experience will be recruited, as the bourgeois propaganda says).

The poor protest culture in Russia adds to this: a range of factors (the influence of Soviet revisionism on the generation of the 1950-1980s; almost complete cleansing of the political playing field; the active support by the formal opposition of Russian imperialism and Putins’ policy, have led to the small number of participants on protest actions and political demands often finding weak expression. At the same time any criticism of the war and the government is forbidden by laws, any tiniest protest action or a careless word may lead to enormous fines, arrests and imprisonment. The 21st of September is marked by multiple cases when those arrested were handed mobilisation subpoenas.

The protests going on now cannot change the situation in Russia and on the frontline, although they did influence the scale of mobilisation and in some regions it was soon cancelled (for now). The broad masses are still captivated by the military frenzy and fascist propaganda of Putin’s regime. Huge work awaits the Russian Marxist-Leninists, all peaceful and democratic forces in Russia.

Our plans are to help the mobilised escape the draft, agitate among them by explaining the essence of events and work with those who have not managed to escape in order to create military councils to fight collectively against the criminal orders of the officers. Demobilised soldiers are in our interests as well.

We emphasize that, unlike the Russian liberals, who consider all soldiers of the Russian army to be criminals and whom Russian liberals threaten with prison terms, or, at best, offer them to simply leave the front or surrender, we, Maoists, do not count soldiers as outcasts of the Russian army, we understand that some of them entered Ukraine under pressure from officers, while others simply believe that they are doing a good deed. Our work is to explain to the soldiers the essence of this war, and also help them organise against their commanders. And only in the event that the agitation does not go on, if other soldiers threaten our agitator, only then will we help him leave the front.