Written by: (Contributed) on 11 May 2024
A huge US-led military assistance package for the Ukraine has left little ambiguity in what the Pentagon appears to have assessed as a viable option for prolonging hostilities.
The Pentagon appears to have drawn up military planning to last several years with the full support of the military industrial-complex. It remains, therefore, to be seen just how long the US-proxy war is kept running and to what cost, financially, and in terms of casualties.
A US-led military intelligence assessment from a senior NATO official about the prevailing balance of forces between the Russian Federation and Europe is best viewed in the context of recent increased western support for the Ukraine. Fears have arisen about western vulnerability to military incursion, particularly in Germany. Some recent developments in Germany have also revealed new Cold War dramas being played out, as a re-run of a previous age.
Toward the end of April an announcement about a previously delayed US$95 billion military package of which two-thirds was destined for the Ukraine, was noted as 'big business for the US defence industry for years to come'. (1) The news was greeted with optimism from Kiev as 'US military jets started flying fresh supplies from Pentagon stocks to Ukraine' the following day. (2) It was noted Lockheed Martin and RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) were the largest beneficiaries of the already outstanding US$30 billion in federal contracts to supply Ukraine. (3)
The UK military assistance to Ukraine also rests upon previously awarded US$44 billion during the past two years. (4)
The time line of the Pentagon military planning, nevertheless, is particularly revealing; an official media release 'detailed a $66 billion package of new weapons, training and spare parts that will be sent to Ukraine over the next several years … and … Frank St. John, Lockheed's chief operating officer, said the extra funding approved last week would sustain factories for years to come'. (5) No doubt the shareholders are rubbing their hands in glee.
The US economy, it should be noted, is not in a particularly strong position and the failure of Ukraine's armed forces to dislodge areas of the country which are Russian-speaking, has revealed their inability to deal with Moscow's territorial claims.
The announcement was also accompanied by further military support for Ukraine from US allies: Australia pledged a new A$100 million package of new drones and air defence systems, Canada has allocated $6.154 billion and Japan, $8 billion. (6) Washington appears to have issued directives for their allies to follow.
The developments are best viewed in the context of disclosures from Lieutenant-General Alexander Sollfrank, Commander of NATO's military logistics centre in Germany, who stated 'NATO leaders have suggested the alliance has as little as perhaps three years to consolidate its defences against a possible Russian offensive'. (7) The open source intelligence assessment has placed Germany in the forefront of possible further Russian military incursion.
Elsewhere, similar concerns have also been raised about Russia possibly acquiring basing facilities in Eastern Libya for their nuclear submarines, 'boosting its influence in the central Mediterranean and placing nuclear weapons on Europe's southern flank'. (8) It was also noted, furthermore, that 'Libya is a perfect stepping stone for Russia in Africa as it looks to supply its military presence in Mali, and perhaps Niger, Chad and Burkino Faso'. (9) In recent years imperialist Russia has emerged as a serious challenger to western neo-colonial power in numerous African countries.
While the open source intelligence assessment was linked to interoperability of military equipment and logistics, it noted 'another significant headache for NATO planners is the tangle of regulations restricting the exchange and transport of military equipment'. (10) The Pentagon regarded itself as hindered by numerous political and other obstacles to its military interoperability with different governments in Europe. The implications created by the outcome of the Brexit poll, were not pursued in the intelligence assessment although they clearly remain problematic for the tendering, transportation and logistics of sensitive military equipment.
A recent statement from President Macron has clarified the position of his administration although it had also shown some of the political obstacles: in offering to share France's 'nuclear umbrella to the continent … opposition groups have … voiced outrage at … putting France's nuclear arsenal, consisting of 300 submarine-launched ballistic missiles and air-launched cruise missiles, at the service of European neighbours'. (11)
French and German diplomacy was never been particularly straightforward: while France has long treasured a status as a relatively independent military power, Germany has fallen under strict US-led NATO defence and security provision. Similar diplomatic positions exist elsewhere in Europe, as a legacy of the previous Cold War and more recent Brexit.
Moves, for example, by Britain, which have included high-level diplomatic meetings with Germany and increased defence expenditure, were accompanied with the statement 'they were to announce plans for a joint endeavour to develop artillery systems' (12) The stated agenda is one thing, the hidden agenda quite different; the sabre-rattling is intended to prop up the present Conservative administration in Westminster, which has declining support in election year along with Britain not being diplomatically part of Europe for trade, transportation and logistics. Placing sensitive military equipment on the back of a truck destined to Germany, is not as straightforward as the Pentagon would wish.
It is also what has not been openly revealed about Germany's perceived vulnerability which, nevertheless, remains highly relevant; the resurgence of the far-right in the eastern part of Germany and the former GDR, has clearly proved problematic. Forthcoming elections in Germany for the European Parliament are likely to see the far-right Afd being able to create a substantial political power-bloc. In recent years the Putin administration in Moscow has developed strong political links with far-right groups as a means of extending their influence into Europe and elsewhere.
It has been officially noted, for example, that Australia 'is becoming a growing hotbed for far-right extremism given the rapid proliferation of far-right groups and mainstreaming of extremist thought'; many of the groups are openly pro-Russian and have created a huge case-load for the security services. (13)
Cold War dramas, the logical outcome, are also being played out on the daily basis.
Russian diplomacy toward far-right political groups has also coincided with the discovery of four spies, including one allegedly Chinese agent, working as a parliamentary assistant to Maximilian Krah, a member of the European far-right inside the European Parliament. (14) European countries, in the grip of Cold War paranoia, fear the emergence of a fifth column inside their political systems, particularly lurking under the guise of pro-Russian allies and their Chinese counterparts.
The recent increased US-led military budget for Ukraine would appear aimed at locking Russia into a longer-term war as a means of draining their economy, while deflecting their
attention away from further possible planned incursions elsewhere in Europe and Scandinavia. The US-led military planning might, however, backfire in a spectacular fashion, pushing Russia diplomatically closer to China and draining the US and western economies.
1. Ukraine aid lifts defence firms amid profit, Australian, 30 April 2024.
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. Ibid.
6. Marles' $100m aid for Ukraine, Australian, 29 April 2024; and, Ukraine deserves more support, Editorial, Australian, 29 April 2024.
7. NATO must prepare for Russian attack on Europe, generals warn, Australian, 30 January 2024.
8. Russia eyes nuclear subs base at Tobruk, Australian, 1 February 2024.
9. Ibid.
10. NATO, Australian, op.cit., 30 January 2024.
11. We can share nuclear arms with Europe, says Macron, Australian, 30 April 2024.
12. Britain to raise military spending, Australian, 25 April 2024.
13. See: ASIO reveals up to 40% of its counter-terrorism cases involve far-right extremism, The Guardian Weekly (U.K.), 22 September 2022; and, The shape of far-right extremism in Australia, The Strategist, ASPI., 21 March 2019; and, Scott Morrison signs on with global political network home to 'intolerant far right', The New Daily, 14 September, 2022.
14. Berlin detains fourth 'China spy', Australian, 25 April 2024.
No comments:
Post a Comment